Applied Mathematics

Economies with Financial Frictions: A Continuous Time Approach

Speaker: 
Yuliy Sannikov
Date: 
Wed, Jul 23, 2014
Location: 
PIMS, University of British Columbia
Conference: 
The Economics and Mathematics of Systemic Risk and Financial Networks
Abstract: 

The recent financial crisis has made obvious the need for models of financial stability. These three lectures will cover recent advancements in the modeling of crisis episodes, with particular emphasis on the use of continuous-time methods which make these models more tractable. Useful background reading includes the following

Contingent Capital and FInancial Networks 2

Speaker: 
Paul Glasserman
Date: 
Wed, Jul 23, 2014
Location: 
PIMS, University of British Columbia
Conference: 
The Economics and Mathematics of Systemic Risk and Financial Networks
Abstract: 

These lectures will cover two topics. The first is contingent capital in the form of debt that converts to equity when a bank 
nears financial distress. These instruments offer a potential solution to the problem of banks that are too big to fail by 
providing a credible alternative to a government bail-out. Their properties are, however, complex. I will discuss models for the analysis of contingent capital with particular emphasis on their incentive effects and the design of the conversion trigger. The second topic in these lectures is the problem of quantifying contagion and amplification in financial networks. In particular, I will focus on bounding the potential impact of network effects under the realistic condition that detailed information on the structure of the network is unavailable

Financial Stability 3

Speaker: 
Jean-Charles Rochet
Date: 
Wed, Jul 23, 2014
Location: 
PIMS, University of British Columbia
Conference: 
The Economics and Mathematics of Systemic Risk and Financial Networks
Abstract: 

The lender of last resort: An analysis of the economics and politics of banking crises, and episodes of bail-outs of
failing financial institutions.

  • Rochet Vives (2004) “The Lender of last Resort: was Bagehot right after all?” JEEA, 6, 1116-1147, reprinted in Rochet J.C. (2008) “Why are there so many banking crises?, Princeton University Press, chapter 2

Risk Sharing in Over the Counter Markets 3

Speaker: 
Darrel Duffie
Date: 
Fri, Jul 25, 2014
Location: 
PIMS, University of British Columbia
Conference: 
The Economics and Mathematics of Systemic Risk and Financial Networks
Abstract: 
I will begin with an overview of the purpose and structure of OTC markets, and how they can be a source of systemic risk.
This will be followed by a brief review of search-based theories of trade and information sharing in OTC markets. Then I will turn to theories and evidence regarding the use of collateral, the role of central clearing, and failure management. The failure management topic will finish with a model of the efficient application of legal stays that could be imposed on OTC contracts at the point of bankruptcy or administrative failure resolution. These stays can yield effective payment or settlement priority to OTC contracts. Stays can be efficient, or not efficient, depending on the setting. The affected OTC contracts include derivatives, repurchase agreements, securities lending agreements, and clearing agreements. I assume a basic knowledge of game theory and of measure-theoretic probability theory, particularly counting processes with an intensity.

Channels of Contagion in Financial Systems 3

Speaker: 
Rama Cont
Date: 
Fri, Jul 25, 2014
Location: 
PIMS, University of British Columbia
Conference: 
The Economics and Mathematics of Systemic Risk and Financial Networks
Abstract: 

Understanding the mechanisms underlying systemic risk requires to change the traditional focus of risk modelling and examine the link between the structure of the financial system and its stability, with a focus on contagion mechanisms which may lead to large scale instabilities in the financial system. Some channels of contagion which have played an important role in past crises are: insolvency contagion through counterparty exposures, withdrawal of liquidity in funding channels and price-mediated contagion through fire sales of assets.

We review some recent work on the mechanisms underlying these channels of contagion, with a focus on the nature of the 'network' underlying each contagion mechanism and the implications of these results for the monitoring and regulation of systemic risk. In particular, we will attempt to illustrate the importance of the ineraction between these various channels and how this interaction may undermine regulatory efforts focussed only on a single mechanism.

Channels of Contagion in Financial Systems 2

Speaker: 
Rama Cont
Date: 
Thu, Jul 24, 2014
Location: 
PIMS, University of British Columbia
Conference: 
The Economics and Mathematics of Systemic Risk and Financial Networks
Abstract: 

Understanding the mechanisms underlying systemic risk requires to change the traditional focus of risk modelling and examine the link between the structure of the financial system and its stability, with a focus on contagion mechanisms which may lead to large scale instabilities in the financial system. Some channels of contagion which have played an important role in past crises are: insolvency contagion through counterparty exposures, withdrawal of liquidity in funding channels and price-mediated contagion through fire sales of assets.

We review some recent work on the mechanisms underlying these channels of contagion, with a focus on the nature of the 'network' underlying each contagion mechanism and the implications of these results for the monitoring and regulation of systemic risk. In particular, we will attempt to illustrate the importance of the ineraction between these various channels and how this interaction may undermine regulatory efforts focussed only on a single mechanism.

Channels of Contagion in Financial Systems

Speaker: 
Rama Cont
Date: 
Thu, Jul 24, 2014
Location: 
PIMS, University of British Columbia
Conference: 
The Economics and Mathematics of Systemic Risk and Financial Networks
Abstract: 

Understanding the mechanisms underlying systemic risk requires to change the traditional focus of risk modelling and examine the link between the structure of the financial system and its stability, with a focus on contagion mechanisms which may lead to large scale instabilities in the financial system. Some channels of contagion which have played an important role in past crises are: insolvency contagion through counterparty exposures, withdrawal of liquidity in funding channels and price-mediated contagion through fire sales of assets.

We review some recent work on the mechanisms underlying these channels of contagion, with a focus on the nature of the 'network' underlying each contagion mechanism and the implications of these results for the monitoring and regulation of systemic risk. In particular, we will attempt to illustrate the importance of the ineraction between these various channels and how this interaction may undermine regulatory efforts focussed only on a single mechanism.

Risk Sharing in Over the Counter Markets 2

Speaker: 
Darrel Duffie
Date: 
Wed, Jul 23, 2014
Location: 
PIMS, University of British Columbia
Conference: 
The Economics and Mathematics of Systemic Risk and Financial Networks
Abstract: 

These lecture notes are part of a series on "Risk Sharing in Over-the-Counter Markets"

Reconstructing carbon dioxide for the last 2000 years: a hierarchical success story

Speaker: 
Doug Nychka,
Date: 
Thu, Oct 16, 2014
Location: 
PIMS, University of British Columbia
Conference: 
SCAIM Seminar
Abstract: 

Knowledge of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations in the past are important to provide an understanding of how the Earth's carbon cycle varies over time. This project combines ice core CO2 concentrations, from Law Dome, Antarctica and a physically based forward model to infer CO2 concentrations on an annual basis. Here the forward model connects concentrations at given time to their depth in the ice core sample and an interesting feature of this analysis is a more complete characterization of the uncertainty in "inverting" this relationship. In particular, Monte Carlo based ensembles are particularly useful for assessing the size of the decrease in CO2 around 1600 AD. This reconstruction problem, also known as an inverse problem, is used to illustrate a general statistical approach where observational information is limited and characterizing the uncertainty in the results is important. These methods, known as Bayesian hierarchical models, have become a mainstay of data analysis for complex problems and have wide application in the geosciences. This work is in collaboration with Eugene Wahl (NOAA), David Anderson (NOAA) and Catherine Truding.

Imaging with Waves in Complex Environments

Speaker: 
Liliana Borcea
Date: 
Fri, Oct 31, 2014
Location: 
PIMS, University of British Columbia
Conference: 
PIMS/UBC/IAM Distinguished Colloquium
Abstract: 

The talk is concerned with the application of sensor array imaging in complex environments. The goal of imaging is to estimate the support of remote sources or strong reflectors using time resolved measurements of waves at a collection of sensors (the array). This is a challenging problem when the imaging environment is complex, due to numerous small scale inhomogeneities and/or rough boundaries that scatter the waves. Mathematically we model such complexity (which is necessarily uncertain in applications) using random processes, and thus study imaging in random media. I will focus attention on the application of imaging in random waveguides, which exhibits all the challenges of imaging in random media. I will present a quantitative study of cumulative scattering effects in such waveguides and then explain how we can use such a study to design high fidelity imaging methods.

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