Mathematics

PIMS/FACTS Panel: Tackling Climate Change and the Just Transition to Renewable Energy

Speaker: 
Réne Aïd
Gaël Giraud
Seth Klein
Judith Sayers
Andrew Weaver
Date: 
Thu, Jul 27, 2023
Location: 
PIMS, University of British Columbia
Online
UBC, Robson Square
Conference: 
PIMS-FACTS Workshop on Forecasting and Mathematical modeling for Renewable Energy
Class: 

The Canadian regional climate model

Speaker: 
Carsten Abraham
Date: 
Fri, Jul 28, 2023
Location: 
PIMS, University of British Columbia
Online
Conference: 
PIMS-FACTS Workshop on Forecasting and Mathematical modeling for Renewable Energy
Abstract: 

High resolution climate simulations (horizontal resolutions of 25km or smaller) are a desired product for policy makers, the public, and renewable energy applications. Since running climate models at high resolution is not feasible, dynamical and statistical downscaling methods are applied. The latest version of the Canadian regional climate model (CanRCM5) is specifically designed to dynamically downscale future climate projections of its parent Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM5). The close relationship between these two Canadian models allows for improved RCM driving relative to independent RCM modelling centres, as all required prognostic variables are available on CanRCM5's lateral boundaries from its parent global model. Coupling different scale size models is challenging as regional climate models can easily develop their own climate. To keep the features of CanRCM5 consistent with CanESM5, the large-scale dynamics of CanRCM5 are typically nudged towards its parent model. We present a framework that identifies appreciable differences between the regional and global model and apply it to near-surface wind and precipitation fields showing that particularly the influence of better resolved topography yields substantial differences in the climate projections of CanRCM and CanESM. Finally, we discuss latest developments on research on bias correcting CanESM and CanRCM which allows for more accurate representations of the climate state. (Joint work with John Scinocca and Slava Kharin)

Class: 

Operational Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) of Hub-height Winds for Mountainous British Columbia

Speaker: 
Roland Stull
Date: 
Fri, Jul 28, 2023
Location: 
PIMS, University of British Columbia
Online
Conference: 
PIMS-FACTS Workshop on Forecasting and Mathematical modeling for Renewable Energy
Abstract: 

Boundary-layer wind and turbulence-profile theories as described in most textbooks apply to flat prairies, not to the rugged terrain of British Columbia (BC). For the mountainous terrain of BC, different turbines at the same wind farm experience different winds and turbulence associated with their locations relative to small-scale (unresolved) terrain features. Convolution of the resulting wind-speed distribution with the wind-turbine power curve for an individual turbine yields a wind-farm power curve that differs from the theoretical power curve. For several wind farms in BC, the farm-average power curve does not achieve the cube of wind speed even between the cut-in and rated-power speeds.

To partially compensate for these wind variations, we run an ensemble of up to 51 NWP model runs each day, with fewer ensemble members covering the more distant wind farms. These runs are based on a variety of initial/boundary conditions (from gov’t centers in Canada, USA, France, Germany), a variety of model cores (WRF-ARW, WRF-NMM, MM5, MPAS), a variety of horizontal grid spacings, and a variety of physics parameterizations. Each forecast is individually bias corrected based on recent-past observations at any wind farm, and then the separate runs are combined to yield ensemble-average and calibrated-probabilistic forecasts.

UBC has been making operational limited-area NWP forecasts of hub-height winds for all the active wind farms in BC for the past decade. BC Hydro uses our ensemble forecasts to better manage the integration of wind power with their much-greater hydro-power generation. BC Hydro also uses our forecasts of Bonneville Power Administration (Columbia River region) wind-farm hub-height winds to optimize their energy-trading to the USA.

Based on our experience, we created a course ATSC 313 “Renewable Energy Meteorology”, which covers meteorology for hydro, wind, and solar power.

Class: 

Simulating Long-Distance Wind Farm Wake Propagation Using Numerical Weather Prediction Models

Speaker: 
Mike Optis
Date: 
Fri, Jul 28, 2023
Location: 
PIMS, University of British Columbia
Online
Conference: 
PIMS-FACTS Workshop on Forecasting and Mathematical modeling for Renewable Energy
Abstract: 

Growing evidence is demonstrating the startling reach of wind farm wakes, which can often exceed 100 kilometers under frequently occurring stable atmospheric conditions. These "long wakes" can significantly affect the annual energy yield of neighboring wind farms. Unfortunately, this impact is not accounted for in industry-standard wind resource assessment methods, leading to consistent overestimations of energy production and the suboptimal placement of new wind farms. As the global wind farm fleet continues to rapidly grow, the development of tools to assess these impacts is crucial prior to making any major investments in new project sites.

In this presentation, we will elucidate how numerical weather prediction (NWP) modeling is emerging as the preferred tool for simulating long-wake propagation. We will initially discuss the physical mechanisms underlying long-wake propagation, and provide observational evidence substantiating their occurrence. Subsequently, we will delve into the suitability of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) NWP model for long-wake modeling, specifically its ability to accurately simulate diurnal and seasonal atmospheric stability fluctuations and its capacity to model wake propagation through its wind farm parameterization option. In conclusion, we will present encouraging validation results from five onshore wind farms in the U.S., reinforcing the potential and accuracy of the WRF model in tackling this growing issue.

Class: 

Turbulence, wakes and wind farm control

Speaker: 
Dennice Gayme
Date: 
Fri, Jul 28, 2023
Location: 
PIMS, University of British Columbia
Online
Conference: 
PIMS-FACTS Workshop on Forecasting and Mathematical modeling for Renewable Energy
Abstract: 

The dynamics of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) play a fundamental role in wind farm power production, governing the velocity field that enters the farm as well as the turbulent mixing that regenerates energy for extraction at downstream rows. Understanding the dynamic interactions between turbines, wind farms, and the ABL can therefore be beneficial in improving the efficiency of wind farm design and control approaches. This talk introduces a suite of models that exploit this knowledge to improve predictions of both static and dynamic conditions in the wind farm. We first introduce the area localized coupled (ALC) model, which couples the steady state solution of a dynamic wake model with a localized top-down model that focuses on the effect of the farm on the ABL. The ALC model improves the accuracy of power output and local velocity predictions over both conventional wake models and top-down models, while extending the applicability of this type of coupled model to arbitrary wind farm layouts. In the second part of the talk, we focus on using attributes of the turbulent ABL to provide improved models for power production and wake behavior under turbine yawing, which has been shown to increase turbine power output potential. Finally, we demonstrate how these ideas can be extended to a control setting.

Class: 

Privilege, agency, and the climate scientist’s role in the global warming debate

Speaker: 
Andrew Weaver
Date: 
Thu, Jul 27, 2023
Location: 
PIMS, University of British Columbia
Online
UBC, Robson Square
Conference: 
PIMS-FACTS Workshop on Forecasting and Mathematical modeling for Renewable Energy
Abstract: 

Andrew Weaver is a professor of climate science at the University of Victoria. He is also a lead author for the IPCC and a former BC MLA and leader of BC Green Party. This presentation was given ahead of his participation in a panel discussion on Tackling Climate Change and the Just Transition to Renewable Energy.

Class: 

First Nation Leadership in Clean Energy and Climate Action

Speaker: 
Judith Sayers
Date: 
Thu, Jul 27, 2023
Location: 
PIMS, University of British Columbia
Online
UBC, Robson Square
Conference: 
PIMS-FACTS Workshop on Forecasting and Mathematical modeling for Renewable Energy
Abstract: 

Judith Sayers is the President of the Nuu-chah-nulth Tribal Council, a lawyer, renewable energy leader, and chancellor of Vancouver Island University. This presentation was given ahead of a panel discussion on Tackling Climate Change and the Just Transition to Renewable Energy.

Class: 

Mobilizing Canada for the Climate Emergency

Speaker: 
Seth Klein
Date: 
Thu, Jul 27, 2023
Location: 
PIMS, University of British Columbia
Online
UBC, Robson Square
Conference: 
PIMS-FACTS Workshop on Forecasting and Mathematical modeling for Renewable Energy
Abstract: 

Seth Klein is a public policy researcher, author and team lead with the Climate Emergency Unit. This presentation as given ahead of his participation in a panel discussion on Tackling Climate Change and the Just Transition to Renewable Energy.

Class: 

Macroeconomics and Climate

Speaker: 
Gaël Giraud
Date: 
Thu, Jul 27, 2023
Location: 
PIMS, University of British Columbia
Online
UBC, Robson Square
Conference: 
PIMS-FACTS Workshop on Forecasting and Mathematical modeling for Renewable Energy
Abstract: 

Gaël Giraud is the Founding director of the Georgetown University Environmental Justice Program. He is also a professor at Georgetown and the former chief economist of the French Development agency CNRS. This presentation was given ahead of a panel discussion on Tackling Climate Change and the Just Transition to Renewable Energy in which Dr. Giraud also participated.

Class: 

More electricity demand response for less carbon emissions

Speaker: 
René Aïd
Date: 
Thu, Jul 27, 2023
Location: 
PIMS, University of British Columbia
Online
UBC, Robson Square
Conference: 
PIMS-FACTS Workshop on Forecasting and Mathematical modeling for Renewable Energy
Abstract: 

Réne Aïd is a professor of Economics at Université Paris-Dauphine and former Deputy-Director of EDF Research Energy Finance. This presentation was given ahead of the PIMS/FACTS panel discussion on Tackling Climate Change and the Just Transition to Renewable Energy in which the speaker also participated.

Class: 

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