Scenario tree and adaptive decision making on optimal type and timing for intervention and social-economic activity changes

Speaker: MIchael Chen, Kyeongah Nah

Date: Wed, Jun 24, 2020

Location: Zoom

Conference: CAIMS - PIMS Coronavirus Modelling Conference

Subject: Mathematics, Mathematical Biology

Class: Scientific


We assess Ontario’s reopening plans, taking into account the healthcare system capacity and uncertainties in contact rates during different reopening phases. Using stochastic programming and a disease transmission model, we find the optimal timing for each reopening phase that maximizes the relaxation of social contacts under uncertainties, while not overwhelming the health system capacity by an expected arrival time of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine/drug.

* Written with Michael Chen and LIAM De-escalation Group