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Modelling evolutionary epidemiology of COVID-19

Speaker: Sally Otto

Date: Tue, Jun 23, 2020

Location: Zoom

Conference: CAIMS - PIMS Coronavirus Modelling Conference

Subject: Mathematics, Mathematical Biology

Class: Scientific

Abstract:

Evolutionary epidemiological models illustrate how selection might act on SARS-CoV-2. Considering the limited data, selection favors increased transmission, longer pre-symptomatic periods, fewer asymptomatic cases, and lower disease severity. Viral mutations are expected to affect combinations of these traits, however, making it challenging to predict the direction and disease impact of evolution.