The role of wind speed variability in very long-term wind power forecasts

Speaker: Nina Effenberger

Date: Wed, Jul 26, 2023

Location: PIMS, University of British Columbia, Online

Conference: PIMS-FACTS Workshop on Forecasting and Mathematical modeling for Renewable Energy

Subject: Mathematics, Applied Mathematics, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics: Climate Modelling

Class: Scientific


How much wind power will a turbine generate over its lifetime? To answer such questions, we can consider climate model output to generate very long-term wind power forecasts on the scale of years to decades. One major limitation of the data projected by climate models is their coarse temporal resolution that is usually not finer than three hours and can be as coarse as one month. However, wind speed distributions of low temporal resolution might not be able to account for high frequency variability which can lead to distributional shifts in the projected wind speeds. Even if these changes are small this can have a huge impact due to the highly non-linear relationship between wind and wind power and the long forecast horizons we consider. In my talk, I will discuss how the resolution of wind speed data from climate projections affects wind power forecasts.